3.1.8. Alberta has the greatest combined wind and solar potential in Canada

Alberta’s argument against a 20 year EoPL is even more spurious than Ontario’s.  Alberta has shown that it can rapidly increase its renewable generation capacity.  

Between 2018 and 2020, Alberta increased its wind turbine capacity by 23%, from 1,445 MW in 2018 to 1,781 MW in 2020.  In the next two years, Alberta more than doubled its wind turbine capacity to 3,618 MW in 2022.^[52]

Between 2018 and 2020, Alberta increased its solar capacity more than seven-fold, from 15 MW in 2018 to 107 MW in 2020.  In the next two years, Alberta increased its solar capacity more than ten-fold, to 1,138 MW in 2022.^[53]

In early 2023, the AESO stated:

Wind and solar generation are growing by leaps and bounds in Alberta. According to the  Canadian Renewable Energy Association, Western Canada in 2022 accounted for 98 per cent of Canada’s total growth in wind and solar, with Alberta adding 1,391 MW and Saskatchewan adding 387 MW of installed capacity. The AESO anticipates renewables will comprise 30 per cent of supply in the 2024-2026 timeframe.^[54]

The fundamental reason Alberta could achieve these huge increases so quickly is because it has some of the best onshore wind potential and solar potential in Canada.

Much of Southern Alberta has average annual wind speeds of between 7 and 10 metres per second (m/s) at a height of 80 metres.^[55]  This corresponds to generating capacity of 500 to 1,100 Watts per square metre (W/m2).^[56]  (The average height of wind turbines has increased over the past several years and the average hub height is now 94 metres.  Wind speed – and therefore energy capacity – increases with height, so both would be greater at these greater heights.)^[57]

According to an engineering consulting firm based in the United Kingdom that specializes in designing and building wind power and other renewables:

Any site that has an annual average wind speed of 7 m/s or more would be considered excellent for farm wind turbines, and in fact many sites with as little as 5.5 m/s can still be viable when using some of the ‘oversized rotor’ wind turbines now available.^[58]

Alberta also has enormous potential for solar energy generation.  Natural Resources Canada provides “Photovoltaic potential and solar resource maps of Canada”.  Among the information is the “mean daily global insolation”, expressed in Kilowatt-Hours (KWh) per square metre (m2) of land, ie. KWh/m2.

Most of Southern Alberta has a mean daily global insolation of 4.2 to 5 KWh/m2, which makes it the second best location in Canada.  However, a roughly 200 square kilometre area in the very south eastern tip of Alberta has a mean daily global insolation of 5.0 to 5.8 KWh/m2, which is the highest in Canada.^[59]

That strip of land with the highest daily global insolation extends along the entirety of Saskatchewan’s southern border with the United States, at a width ranging from approximately 80 km to approximately 240 km.^[60]  This fact puts the lie to any complaints from Saskatchewan about a lack of solar capacity.

Note that these numbers are for simple photovoltaic generation while the sun is shining, with no consideration of the potential to store surplus generation for times when the sun is not shining.  Industrial battery storage would unquestionably increase the potential, for both wind and solar power.

As with Ontario, the short construction times for wind and solar projects belie Alberta’s professed concern of a 20 year EoPL causing a “retirement cliff”.  International experts state  that the construction time for both onshore and offshore wind projects (both with and without electricity storage) is approximately 12 months, and the construction time for solar projects (both with and without electricity storage) is only nine months.^[61]

In its June 2023 paper entitled Zeroing In – Pathways to an affordable net-zero grid in Alberta, the Pembina Institute partnered with the University of Alberta to model six scenarios that had been suggested by the AESO.  It concluded that, by 2035, renewable energy could be the largest source of electricity generation in all six scenarios,  providing between 45% and 58% of Alberta’s total electricity demand and up to 71% of grid-connected generation:

Our modelling – which optimizes for costs while ensuring the grid remains reliable – shows Alberta’s 2035 wind fleet expanding to three to five times larger than its current installed capacity.  At the same time, it shows installed solar capacity increasing by two to four times.  Most scenarios also result in the installation of new natural gas generation outfitted with carbon capture technologies and a decrease in unabated natural gas capacity.^[62]

That Pembina study also found that all six scenarios resulted in provincial electricity costing less than under the AESO’s 2021 Long-term Outlook Reference Case, which the AESO used as a base case in its net-zero analysis.  This conclusion was released in part because the Pembina study recalculated the AESO scenarios with updated natural gas prices and carbon pricing policy.

These cost reductions would be increased further through the various federal incentives and investments, and by accounting for the cost of addressing residual emissions through carbon removal activities, both of which were not included in our modelling. Between 2023 and 2035, our baseline scenario would cost $22 billion less than the AESO 2021 LTO Reference Case and $27–28 billion less than their net-zero scenarios.1 Cost reductions are driven by a rapid deployment of low-cost wind and solar, which displaces large amounts of existing natural gas generation. This also reduces the need for significant expansion of the natural gas fleet, avoiding the volatile costs of gas as a fuel. This transformation would also help reduce household electricity costs for Albertans, as wind and solar lower the price of power.^[63]

3.1.9. For the world to stay below 1.5oC of warming, Canada and other advanced countries must achieve net-zero electricity by 2035

On 26 September 2023, the International Energy Association (the IEA) released Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5oC Goal in Reach – 2023 Update.  It discusses its Net Zero Emissions Scenario, (the “NZE Scenario”), which is what the world must do in order to keep global warming below a further 1.5oC.  The NZE Scenario:

• Describes a pathway for the global energy sector to reach net zero emissions of CO2 by 2050 by deploying a wide portfolio of clean energy technologies and without offsets from land-use measures. Decisions about technology deployment are driven by costs, technology maturity, market conditions, available infrastructure and policy preferences.
• Prioritises an orderly transition that aims to safeguard energy security through strong and co‐ordinated policies and incentives that enable all actors to anticipate the rapid changes required, and to minimise energy market volatility and stranded assets.
• Recognises that achieving net zero energy sector CO2 emissions by 2050 depends on fair and effective global co-operation. The pathway to net zero emissions by 2050 is very narrow. All countries are required to contribute to deliver the desired outcomes; advanced economies take the lead and reach net zero emissions earlier in the NZE… Global collaboration facilitates the development and adoption of ambitious policies, drives down clean technology costs, and scales up diverse and resilient global supply chains for critical minerals and clean energy technologies.^[64]

The IEA 2023 report concludes:  “Electricity sectors in advanced economies, in aggregate, reach net zero emissions by 2035 in the NZE Scenario, around 2040 in China and by 2045 in other emerging market and developing economies”.^[65] [Emphasis added.]

3.1.10. A preponderance of studies find that net zero electricity in Canada is possible by 2035

In 2022, as part of its study called “The Big Switch – Powering Canada’s Net Zero Future”, the Canadian Climate Institute (“CCI”) published Bigger, Cleaner, Smarter – Pathways For Aligning Canadian Electricity Systems With Net Zero.  It included a table that summarized the findings of six major studies that each considered whether it was possible for Canada to achieve net zero electricity generation by 2035:^[66]

Is It Possible for Canada to Achieve Net Zero Electricity by 2035?

Importantly, between 2021 and 2023, the Canada Energy Regulator (“CER”) significantly revised its assessment from that shown in the Table above.  In Canada Energy Futures 2023, the CER states:

Unabated fossil fuels remain only for emergencies in the net-zero scenarios.  In both net-zero scenarios, we project that generation from coal is completely phased out by 2030. This phase-out, along with steady growth in electricity use, means natural gas-fired electricity generation increases early in our projections. We also project unabated fossil fuel generation, meaning no CCUS is used to capture emissions, is nearly zero after 2030. Our assumptions about policies and costs of other technologies mean low- and non-emitting power sources are the most cost-effective option for generating electricity. Some unabated generation facilities remain online throughout the projection period, providing an option for emergency generation if required. The share of unabated fossil fuel generation falls from 18% in 2021 to 2% by 2035, and further declines to less than 1% of generation in 2050. An exception is the Territories and other remote and northern regions, where many communities rely solely on diesel-fired generation…

 While unabated fossil fuel generation is largely phased-out in the net-zero scenarios, natural gas-fired generation combined with CCUS becomes an important part of the generation mix in some regions. Natural gas with CCUS is first deployed in 2030 and grows steadily throughout the projection period, reaching 69 TWh by 2050. While more expensive compared to wind and solar per unit of electricity generated, natural gas with CCUS is a flexible source of power, meaning it plays an important role in balancing electricity systems, particularly those that do not have many other flexible options. Most additions of natural gas with CCUS are in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario.^[67] [Emphasis added.]

Later, Canada Energy Futures 2023 also states:

We project that GHG emissions from the electricity sector, which made up 8% of Canada’s emissions in 2021, reach net-zero by 2035 in both net-zero scenarios. After 2035, the electricity sector becomes a net-negative emitter, resulting in net-negative emissions of 36 MT by 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario, and 35 MT in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. Some types of generation result in positive emissions throughout the projection period, including the fraction of emissions CCUS does not capture, diesel generation in remote and northern communities, and limited amounts of unabated natural gas-fired generation. Figure R.26 shows GHG emissions of the electricity sector by fuel in the Global Net-zero Scenario.^[68] [Emphasis added.]

When considering Canada Energy Regulator’s 2023 report in place of its 2021 report, of the six studies that CCI reviewed, three conclude it is possible for Canada to achieve net zero electricity by 2035, two conclude that it is a possibility, and only one concludes that it is not possible.  However, even that one estimates that nation-wide emissions from electricity generation will be only 32 Mt in 2035, which is approximately half of the 61 Mt that they were in 2019.^[69]

3.1.11. According to General Electric, 95% abatement from gas plants using CCS is already possible

GE Vernova, a subsidiary of the General Electric Corporation^[70],  is advertising equipment and processes that it states can reduce gas plant emissions by up to 95%:

The U.S. Department of Energy awarded $5.7 million for a GE-led carbon capture technology integration project aiming to achieve 95% reduction of carbon emissions. …This study will serve as a template for lowering carbon emissions for other 7F gas power plants worldwide.^[71]

In 2024, no new gas plants should be built that do not either utilize carbon capture and storage upon commissioning or that are not at least capable of having carbon capture and storage technology added to them well before 2035.

The notion of extending the EoPL any longer than 20 years is simply unreasonable.

3.1.12. Alberta’s “Retirement Cliff” argument is unreasonable given the Alberta government’s prohibition on most wind power

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has relentlessly opposed the CERs.  Her government spent $8 million on an advertising campaign to oppose them during ECCC’s online public consultation on the Draft CERs.  The campaign included television, radio, the internet, social media, and billboards.  It also included a panel truck that drove around downtown Ottawa with large signs on each side that said, “No one wants to freeze in the dark.”^[72]

In 2023, Premier Smith imposed a seven-month moratorium on all renewable energy developments in the province.  As it came to an end, on 28 February 2024, she introduced new limits on renewable energy generation:^[73]

Alberta will no longer permit renewable generation developments on Class 1 and 2 lands [agricultural land with the best irrigation] unless the proponent can demonstrate the ability for both crops and/or livestock to coexist with the renewable generation project…

Buffer zones of a minimum of 35 kilometers will be established around protected areas and other “pristine viewscapes” as designated by the province.

• New wind projects will no longer be permitted within those buffer zones.

• Other proposed developments located within the buffer zone may be subject to a visual impact assessment before approval.^[74]  [Emphasis added.]

As the following map shows, these new rules have the effect of prohibiting wind turbines on over 63% of Alberta’s land mass, and on over 75% of the land mass upon which they were not already prohibited.  The prohibition includes all the land in southwestern Alberta that has the greatest wind potential.

Source: The Narwhal, citing a map produced by the Northern Alberta Chapter of the Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society.^[75]

The blatant unreasonableness of these prohibitions is made obvious by comparing that map to a map showing the locations of existing oil and gas wells in Alberta:

The Globe Editorial Board, had this to say:

Last week, the province lifted the clean power halt but issued new rules (with more to come) that apply only to one industry. It is an attack on private business and it’s an attack on landowners’ rights. It is un-Albertan – the exact opposite of the principles the province holds dear.

The main restrictions limit where projects can be built but the UCP hasn’t released key details. There is talk of “pristine viewscapes,” affecting as much as three-quarters of southern Alberta, yet the only certainty at present is that fossil fuels will not face the same restrictions. The bottom line is the Alberta government will prevent private landowners from doing deals of their own volition with developers of renewable power. It’s hard to imagine Ms. Smith preventing an oil or natural gas well on private land in the Foothills because it would mar the view of the Rocky Mountains.

This government attack on one industry is not a random event. While Ms. Smith says she supports net zero emissions by 2050, her actions are effectively working to ensure Alberta falls short. She opposes Ottawa’s goal to cut most emissions from power generation by 2035. Alberta is, she claims, “a natural-gas province.” Favouring fossil fuels and slowing clean power is the UCP strategy.^[76]

3.1.13. Alberta is not acting in good faith and, therefore, their arguments lack merit

Also on 28 February 2024, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith introduced a motion in the provincial Legislature that invoked the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act and stated that the federal Clean Electricity Regulations, which it called the “Federal Initiative” will not apply in Alberta.^[77]

After the motion passed, Premier Smith tweeted:

The Legislative Assembly just passed the first ‘Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act’ motion calling for several initiatives that will protect Alberta’s electricity grid from the federal government’s destructive policies and ensure access to affordable and reliable electricity.

Alberta’s Government will continue to use all legal means necessary to oppose the implementations and enforcement of Ottawa’s Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) in our province.^[78]

3.1.14. The Courts will almost certainly decide against Alberta

In the end, the Courts will almost certainly determine that the federal government’s use of the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (“CEPA”) to reduce GHG emissions from gas plants is a valid exercise of the federal government’s criminal law powers, and that the CERs will therefore be constitutional.  

In 1997, the Supreme Court of Canada considered a similar use of CEPA and decided:

Under s. 91(27) of the Constitution Act, 1867, Parliament has been accorded plenary power to make criminal law in the widest sense. It is entirely within Parliament’s  discretion to determine what evil it wishes by penal prohibition to suppress and what threatened interest it thereby wishes to safeguard.  Under s. 91(27), it is also within the discretion of Parliament to determine the extent of blameworthiness that it wishes to attach to a criminal prohibition.^[79]

In that Supreme Court case, the “evil” that the federal federal government wished by penal prohibition to suppress was the dumping of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) into a river.  PCBs had been designated a “toxic substance” under CEPA.  With the CERs, the evil that the federal government wishes by penal prohibition to suppress is the emissions of GHGs from electricity generation.  Carbon dioxide (CO2) is listed as a “toxic substance” under CEPA, as are other GHGs.^[80]

3.1.15.  Suggestions for your submissions about the 20-year EoPL

• ECCC should not extend the 20-year period for the End of Prescribed Life  (“EoPL”).  Doing so would only pander to provincial governments that are willfully refusing to develop their enormous renewable potential.

• The other changes that ECCC are proposing in the Public Update, such as the changes to the 30 tCO2e/MWh performance standard, removing the hourly limit on peaker plants, pooling, and offsets, provide more than enough compliance flexibility.  With even some of them, extending the End of Prescribed Life is unnecessary.